Complex Effects of Telecouplings on Forest Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Abstract Rural areas are increasingly subject to the effects of telecouplings (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances) whereby their human natural dynamics linked socioeconomic drivers operating far away, such as growing demand for labor ecosystem services in cities. Although there have been many studies evaluating telecouplings, those were often investigated separately, how may interact affect rural coupled systems (CHANS) jointly was rarely evaluated. In this study, we developed an agent-based model simulated impacts two globally common nature-based tourism migration, on forest a CHANS, China’s Wolong Nature Reserve (Wolong). Nature-based migration can facilitate recovery, predicted 2030 would be reduced by 26.2 km 2 (6.8%) 23.9 (6.2%), respectively, without effects. However, development significantly reduce probability local households member(s) outmigrate work cities decrease positive impact recovery. Our simulations show that interaction between potential recovery 3.5 (5.0%) 2030. study highlights among different generate significant outcomes should considered design, management, evaluation achieving sustainable goals. Significance Statement connected with other places through migration. telecouplings’ evaluated remains poorly understood. demonstration site using modeling approach. both benefit conservation, found generates antagonistic effect: households’ involvement activities reduces members diminishes beneficial importance considering management sustainability.